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  • Tim McGill

Freeze Warning Tonight & Non-Zero Chance Of Weekend Snow

All Good Things...


It was nice while it lasted. Nine straight days with above average temperatures. Seven of the past nine days have seen highs in at least the 70s. A cold front came through last night and gusty west winds have kicked in delivering much cooler air. Highs today will fall into the middle to upper 50s.

Clear skies and lighter winds tonight set us for almost ideal radiational cooling. Lows will dip into the middle 30s in the city and near 30° in outlying areas where a few upper 20s are even possible. This will be the coldest night in just over six months. A freeze warning is in effect outside of the city from 1 am to 9 am Friday morning.



First Freeze Right On Schedule


This will be the first freeze of the fall for most of us. It will be right on schedule. Average first freeze here for areas outside of the city is between October 11th and the 20th.



We will bounce back briefly Saturday with highs in the lower 60s. Colder air comes crashing back in for Sunday and early next week. A few models suggesting highs will fail to get out of the 40s both Sunday and Monday. A slow but steady warm up next week after that chilly start with highs warming Wednesday into the 60s.



First Snow Of The Season?


Models have been going back and forth with snow in the forecast. The GFS model is still suggesting some light snow possible here later Sunday. It would mix with rain at times during the afternoon. It even suggests at least a dusting in some spots outside of the city. Our average first date for a trace or more of snow is October 30th so this would be about two weeks ahead of schedule. A much higher potential for more significant snow to the north of us. Check out the totals on the GFS total snowfall accumulation forecast through Sunday below.


It could be worse in October. Last year we set the record for snowfall on Halloween. 3.4" of snow fell on October 31st. This month has been quiet so far but as I pointed out in an earlier blog, October has seen it's share of crazy weather.


The longer range temperature probability forecasts first give us a reprieve from this fall chill then suggest it could be back towards the end of the month. The 6-10 day forecast has us back to near normal from October 20th through the 24th. The 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from October 22nd through the 28th.




Dry Lately But Change Pattern Could Be Coming


The GFS model still hints at snow mixing with rain Sunday afternoon but anything that falls would be light. It all so suggests a more active pattern next week with several chances for showers and even a few thunderstorms.


Rainfall is running just under an inch of rain below average. The longer range forecasts hint that we could make up that deficit by the end of the month. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability forecast have us outlooked for above average precipitation overall from October 20th through the 28th.




Here is my 7 day forecast: Today: Spotty sprinkle possible early, mostly cloudy then clearing, breezy High: 57 Friday: Partly/mostly cloudy, blustery, spotty pm shower possible Low: 32 High: 56

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy & milder Low: 40 High: 62 Sunday: Mostly cloudy, spotty showers (possibly mixing with light snow) Low: 41 High: 48 Monday: Mostly cloudy, spotty showers Low: 36 High: 50 Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, spotty showers Low: 39 High: 56

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 47 High: 62 #ilwx


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