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  • Tim McGill

Fishing For A Few More Fabulous Fall Days

Warm Through The Weekend


Hopefully my forecast skills are better than my fishing skills. I enjoyed an afternoon of fishing on Wednesday but didn't have much to show for it other than this puny perch. Don't worry, I let him live to fight another day. Not much to show for my efforts but it didn't matter because it was a beautiful day to be out on the water. We have a few more fabulous fall days to enjoy before big changes arrive next week. Today will be the 5th day in a row above average.



Today will be the 15th day out of 24 so far this month with above average temperatures. A southwest wind along with some smoky sunshine will push highs into the upper 70s.



Dramatic Drop


Saturday will be the warmest day of the next seven. It will feel just like July with highs in the middle 80s. Still above average on Sunday with highs into the 70s but then a dramatic drop in temperatures next week. We fall into the 50s for highs by the middle of the week. It will be the coolest temperatures we've seen since the middle of May.



This shift to a cooler pattern could last longer than just a few days. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from September 29th through October 7th.


Here is another visual to demonstrate the dramatic drop in temperatures that is coming next week. The graphic on the left shows the temperature anomalies for Saturday afternoon with highs 10° to 15° above average in the midwest. The graphic on the left shows temperatures nearly 15° to 20° cooler than average by Tuesday afternoon. That is a swing of 25° to 35° in just three days.



Dry Stretch Coming To An End


We are still above average in terms of rainfall for the month. So far September has seen 2.78" of rain. That is .28" above average. That surplus has been dropping. Today will be the 11th straight day without any rain. There is a portion of Illinois still in a moderate drought and that has probably expanded since the report issued by the US Drought Monitor last week. I'll have an update on that tomorrow.


Rain will return by Sunday. There is even a small chance for a spotty shower northwest of the city today but greater chances for rain come next week. Just a few showers possible Sunday but the probability of rainfall ramps up for later Monday into Tuesday.



The GFS precipitation accumulation forecast through next Thursday suggests about a half inch to three quarters of an inch of rain could fall in total here.



The prospects for for rain beyond next week don't look as good in the longer term forecasts. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability forecasts have us outlooked for below average probabilities for rainfall from September 29th through October 7th.




Smoke Still Overhead


Western wildfire smoke will still be in our skies today. The concentrations will be lower than the past few days but the HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecast shows wildfire smoke stretching from coast to coast today and right through the midwest.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly sunny, spotty shower late northwest? High: 79


Friday: Sunny skies Low: 59 High: 80


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy & warm Low: 63 High: 85


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 61 High: 77


Monday: Partly cloudy, shower possible late Low: 54 High: 67


Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 48 High: 59


Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 45 High: 56


#ilwx

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