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  • Tim McGill

Feeling Just Like July Soon

Updated: Apr 27, 2021

Windy & Warm Start To Week



It will feel just like June today with highs around 15° above average. Tuesday will feel just like July as highs reach to nearly 20° above average.


Strong southerly and southeasterly winds along with some sunshine should push highs into the upper 70s today. It will be a bit cooler lakeside with highs in the lower 70s.


Southwesterly breezes on Tuesday along with more sunshine should push highs into the lower to middle 80s. If the high is warmer than 82° tomorrow at O'Hare it would be the warmest day of the year so far.



The temperature anomaly forecast shows most of the Midwest and eastward through the

Mid-Atlantic region will see the greatest departures from normal on the warm side. Highs Tuesday in the Chicago area should be around 15° to 20° above average.


Gusty winds will accompany this warm up. Today's gust could approach 45 mph late in the day. Tuesday won't be quite as windy but it will still be breezy with gusts near 30 mph. The combination of strong winds today, dry conditions and warm temperatures means an elevated fire danger for this Monday.






More Active Pattern Later This Week


Some rain fell over the weekend but there is still a substantial rainfall deficit at O'Hare. We are down more than two inches of rain below average for April and down 3.4" since March 1st. The GFS model brings in some periods of unsettled weather later this week. The first round is from Tuesday night through Thursday. More rain could come at times Saturday night into early Monday and then a third round next Tuesday through Wednesday.



The GFS model precipitation forecast through Friday morning lays down about a half inch to nearly an inch of rain in total this week.





Temperature Tumble By Thursday


The hourly temperature meteogram compares many different forecast models. We will enjoy a taste of summer with our warm start to the week but then temperatures drop sharply by Thursday. Many of us will fail to rise above the 50s on Thursday. We should bounce back to about average by Saturday with highs well into the 60s.





Mild Pattern For Start Of May


The long range temperature probability forecasts favor us for a relatively mild start to May. The latest 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from May 1st through May 5th. The 8-14 day temperature probability forecast also has us favored for staying above average overall from May 3rd through May 9th. Average highs for start of May are in the middle to upper 60s.



The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecast is signaling a cooler than average pattern middle of May. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending May 14th has us outlooked to be below average overall. The forecast for the following week ending on May 21st has Chicago below average overall too. Average highs for this period are in the upper 60s to lower 70s.








Moving To Above Average Precipitation

The long range precipitation probability forecasts moves northern Illinois from near normal to above average. The latest 6-10 day forecast still has Chicago favored for about average precipitation from May 1st through May 5th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us favored for above average precipitation overall from May 3rd through May 9th.






Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, warmer & windy (gusts over 40 mph) High: 77 (72 lakeside)


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy (gusts to 30 mph) Low: 60 High: 85


Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, sct. showers/thunderstorms Low: 61 High: 72 (cooler lakeside)


Thursday: Mostly cloudy, on & off showers Low: 48 High: 60 (cooler lakeside)


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 44 High: 62 (cooler lakeside)


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 45 High: 72 (cooler lakeside)


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, chance of rain Low: 50 High: 72


#ilwx

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