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  • Tim McGill

Fantastic Fall Weather This Week

Dramatic Pattern Change


It doesn't get much better than this for early fall. We have turned the tide on what has been a soggy start to September. Nine of the first 13 days have seen rain. Sunday was the first dry day after seven days in a row with rain. So far 2.76" has fallen which is more than three times the amount we saw in August (.8"). In less that two weeks we have seen more rain than all of July.


What a difference a new week makes. There is very little chance of rain all the way through next weekend. A slight chance for a few showers overnight Wednesday into early Thursday as a cold front comes through but aside from that, it will be a dry week.


The GFS model total rainfall accumulation forecast all the way through Sunday only squeezes out between a trace to .06 inches of rain.


The longer range outlook hints at less rainfall than average through the end of the month. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability forecasts have us outlooked for below average precipitation overall from September 19th through the 27th.



Closing The Month Cooler


Today's highs will be near normal. Most spots will make it into the middle 70s. A light breeze off the lake will keep it a bit cooler lakeside with upper 60s there.

The longer range 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for cooler than average temperatures overall from September 19th through the 23rd. The 8-14 day forecast has the northwest part of Illinois outlooked for about average temperatures overall and the southeast part cooler than average overall from September 21st through the 27th.


The longer range forecast has cooler than average temperatures overall for the start of October here and across most of the eastern half of the country. The graphic below shows how much above average or below average temperatures will be for the week ending October 9th. Notice the large area of tan, orange and red out west. Notice too those same colors showing up out west in both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecasts above which indicate warmer than average weather for the western half of the country. This would be really bad news for the ongoing drought in several western states. It also doesn't bode well for the wildfire conditions through the first week of October.



Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly sunny High: 74 (69 Lakefront)


Tuesday: Mostly sunny Low: 57 High: 78


Wednesday: Mostly sunny Low: 58 High: 81


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 59 High: 70


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 66

Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 51 High: 68

Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 56 High: 75


#ilwx

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