Elevated Risk Of Severe Weather Today
Strong storms capable of producing tornadoes are a real risk late on this Saturday afternoon and into this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the 'enhanced' and 'moderate' risk areas further north and east compared to yesterday's outlook. Chicago is now included in the enhanced risk area. The SPC may even raise the risk level to high later today for portions of the area.
Here are the risk categories and their definitions. Each risk category needs to be respected and taken seriously but the descriptions for the moderate and high risk categories should really grab your attention. High risk means long-lived, very widespread and particularly intense severe storms are expected.
The Chicago area will be uncomfortably close to a "triple point" late today. It is a particular severe weather scenario where three fronts converge to one point. In this this case it will be a warm front, cold front and occluded front. I posted a video on my YouTube channel yesterday regarding this. That convergence point will be over eastern Iowa around 6 pm this evening. There will be a lot of wind shear, sufficient moisture and a powerful jet stream racing overhead to provide the ingredients for a potential outbreak.
So be alert today. Have redundant sources for receiving severe weather alerts and stay safe.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: On & off showers/t-storms, some strong/severe storms possible late High: 64 (58)
Sunday: Windy, mostly cloudy, cooler, sct. showers Low: 44 High: 53
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 38 High: 54 (48 lakefront)
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. shower possible Low: 37 High: 47 (44 lakefront)
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, shower possible late Low: 36 High: 49
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 36 High: 50