Will Changes In the Weather Impact The COVID-19?
Updated: Mar 13, 2020
The short answer to that question is the experts don't really know. COVID-19 is a new strain of coronavirus and there isn't a lot of data to go on yet. However, based on patterns seen in China and other countries of the disease's spread and behavior, there is at least some hope that as temperatures warm up this spring there could be a drop in the spread of COVID-19. It may be harder to transmit at the typically warmer temperatures and humidity levels we see here in the spring and summer.
Studies have shown the "hot-spots" for the virus seem to lie between 30 and 50 degrees latitude in the northern hemisphere. This corridor of heavier concentration of the disease has similar temperature and humidity conditions. Temperatures there have been in the lower 40s to lower 50s with humidity levels fairy high at 50 to 80 percent. Cooler temperatures and higher humidity seem to be where COVID-19 thrives. Australia is the outlier though. Even the always affable Tom Hanks couldn't escape the reach of the virus there.
Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch wrote a post for Harvard University where he points out that new virus strains have the advantage of very few (if any) people being immune to it. Therefore he writes that even seasonal infections can happen “out of season” when they are new.
If COVID-19 is sensitive to warmer weather then time and temperatures may be on our side.
Here are the average high temperatures across the United States for the months of March, April and May courtesy of https://whatsanswer.com/.
By May the entire contiguous United States should (on average) be seeing temperatures warmer than the range that seems to be the ideal conditions for the virus to spread.
The spring temperature forecast from NOAA is encouraging too showing that most of the country (the tan and brown shades) is favored for above average temperatures from March through May.
Here are some links to stories about the possible link between weather and COVID-19: