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  • Tim McGill

Cooler Today But More Like Summer Friday

October Recovery


October started off with five straight days below average but it has bounced back in a big way. Today will be the third straight day above average and tomorrow will feel more like summer than early fall.


A wind off the lake will keep us a few degrees cooler today compared to Wednesday. Look for highs in the upper 60s lakeside but lower 70s for most areas.



Average highs for early October are around 66°. The forecast for the next seven days keeps us above average through Wednesday next week. Friday will be the warmest of those seven day with highs near or just above 80°.



Gusty Winds Friday


It will be warm and windy on Friday. Gusts tomorrow will build to just over 30 mph during the afternoon as highs reach to 15° or more above average.



Eye On The Sky For More Smoke


We enjoyed 100% of possible sunshine Wednesday. Wildfire smoke from western fires has diminished in our skies substantially recently but it is building back up to our west. The HRRR vertically integrated smoke forecast for late this afternoon has very low levels of smoke here. Thicker smoke will be making its way into Iowa and Missouri though and that will have to be watched for Friday.



The longer range 6-10 day temperature probability forecast still has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from October 13th through the 19th. The 8-14 day forecast has us near normal from October 15th through the 21st. That would mean highs in the middle 60s.



The even longer range multi-model ensemble forecast has the midwest (and vast majority of the country) outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the week ending on October 23rd.



Time For A Car Wash?


Rainfall for October is now -.38" below average. We are down -.41" since September 1st. The only decent chance for rain over the next ten day is later Columbus Day with a few showers possible.


Models continue to keep the remnants of Hurricane Delta to the south and east of us late this weekend. The GFS forecast below for early Sunday has rain clipping the far southern part of Illinois but the bulk of the rain should steer east into the Ohio Valley.



The 6-10 day precipitation probability forecast has us outlooked for above average precipitation overall from October 13th through the 17th and then less rainfall than average overall in the 8-14 day forecast from October 15th through the 21st.



Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Sunny, mild & pleasant High: 72 (68 Lakeside)

Friday: Mostly sunny, breezy & warmer Low: 52 High: 81


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 63 High: 75

Sunday: Partly mostly sunny Low: 59 High: 74


Monday: Partly cloudy, a few scattered showers Low: 60 High: 72


Tuesday: Mostly sunny Low: 50 High: 68


Wednesday: Mostly sunny Low: 51 High: 65


#ilwx

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