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  • Tim McGill

Cooler, Quiet Pattern But Do You Know Where Your Weather Radio Is?

Now Is The Time To Prepare


So far, so good for this year's severe weather season in Chicago. No significant severe weather has been reported this year yet in and around Chicago. Yet is probably the key word in that sentence. It's not a matter of if, but when we will see some severe weather. May, June and July are peak months for severe weather here. On average we get just over 30 days a year with severe weather.


The Tornado Project has compiled several tornado statistic lists that compare tornadic activity in the United States. Illinois ranks 8th in total numbers of tornadoes, 8th in deaths per 10k square miles, 6th in number of killer tornadoes and 5th in total tornado path length per 10k square miles. We are in four out of six of these top ten lists.


A quiet pattern will settle in today and stick around through the weekend. Now is a great time to plan ahead for the likelihood of future severe weather. It starts with a tornado preparedness plan. Put together a plan and talk about it with your family.


The single most important thing to have in your home is a weather radio. You can click on the banner below to go to Midland Radio and purchase a NOAA weather radio to keep your family protected. Weather radios are also available at most major retail stores.


We were spared from severe weather again yesterday. There were five reports of possible tornadoes in central Illinois but no reports of severe weather north Springfield. Our "luck" can't hold up all year though.





Back Below Average


May got off to a rather warm start. After 80s over the weekend we enjoyed 70s on Monday. So far the month is running 13° above average. We fall back below average today since a cold front has settled southeast of us. A northwest breeze along with cloud cover will keep us nearly 20° cooler today compared to yesterday. Our highs today will fail to get out of the 50s.


A brisk northwest breeze will shift more off the lake later tonight into tomorrow. This will keep us unseasonably cool for the next several days.


We can say so long to the 70s we enjoyed on Monday. The warmest we can hope for through early next week is lower 60s Friday and Saturday. Average highs for this time of the year are around 66°.






More Rain Needed To Put Dent In Drought


There may be a few spotty showers today, especially south and southeast of the city and in northern Indiana in particular but most of the day will be dry. The GFS model shows a chance for more scattered showers Thursday, Friday and late Saturday into Sunday and then Tuesday into Wednesday next week. None of these rain chances look to offer us the kind of widespread, drenching rain we really need. Just .07" of rain fell at O'Hare on Monday. We are now down more than 4 inches below average going back to March 1st.




Cool Pattern Could Linger


The longer range temperature probability forecasts keeps our cooler pattern going into the middle of May. The latest 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for cooler than average temperatures overall from May 9th through May 13th. The 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us favored for below average temperatures overall from May 11th through May 17th. Average highs for the middle of May are around 70°.



The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecast is signaling a cooler than average pattern for the last two weeks of May. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending May 21st has us outlooked to be below average overall. The forecast for the following week ending on May 28th has Chicago below average overall too. Average highs for this period are in the lower to middle 70s.






More Active Pattern Coming?

The longer range precipitation probability forecasts continue to offer hope for more rainfall to put a dent in our drought. Both forecasts favor a more active pattern as we move into the middle of May. The latest 6-10 day has Chicago favored for above average precipitation from May 9th through May 13th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast though has us favored for above average precipitation overall from May 11th through May 17th too.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly cloudy, cooler, a bit breezy, a few spotty showers High: 58 (53 lakeside)


Wednesday: Mostly sunny Low: 44 High: 60 (53 lakeside)


Thursday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 45 High: 58 (cooler lakeside)


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 42 High: 63 (cooler lakeside)


Saturday: Mostly cloudy, shower possible late Low: 44 High: 62 (cooler lakeside)


Sunday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 48 High: 60 (cooler lakeside)


Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 45 High: 58 (coolerlakeside)


#ilwx

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