Cooler Air Coming For The Weekend
So far June has felt a lot more like July. The first four days of the month have been nearly 11° above average. Average highs are around 76° for early June and today we will see highs about 10° warmer than that. The HRRR model shows upper 80s this afternoon. Cooler air is coming though and just in time for the weekend.
A cold front will cross through the area later today and shift the winds to the northwest. The front will help trigger a few scattered thunderstorms. The GFS total accumulation forecast spits out about a tenth of an inch of rain but in some spots the rainfall totals could be higher. The potential is there for a few heavier downpours. There is even a risk for a few severe storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked us for a marginal risk of severe weather. A marginal risk means "an area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity." The best chance for storms would be later in the afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds pose the biggest threats in terms of severe weather with these storms.
After today the next and really only good chance for additional rain comes later Tuesday into Wednesday. The path of what is now tropical depression Cristobal will have to be watched. If that moisture sweeps north it could fuel some heavy downpours here that may lead to some flash flooding.
While June has been off to a rather warm start the models are hinting for a cool change soon. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for cooler than average temperatures overall from June 10th through the 18th. This cooler trend could continue through the end of the month.
The multi-model ensemble temperature anomaly continues to show a strong cooling signal for the week ending on June 26th. Most of the eastern half of the country would close out the month cooler than average overall if this forecast verifies.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Partly sunny with scattered thunderstorms High: 88
Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 62 High: 76 ( 68 Lakefront)
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 56 High: 79 (68 Lakefront)
Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 60 High: 88 (81 Lakefront)
Tuesday: Partly sunny, pm sct. shwrs/t-storms Low: 66 High: 90 (86 Lakefront)
Wednesday: A.M. shower?, partly to mostly sunny Low: 66 High: 81
Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 61 High: 79