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  • Tim McGill

Chilly Today But Just Wait Until Thursday

A Rare Day


Monday was right at average for the middle of November. It is the only day this November to be average in terms of temperatures. We've seen 10 days above average this month so far and 5 below. Overall the month is running just under 8° above average. More mild days are coming but first we have to get through a chilly Tuesday.



A cold front came through last night and blustery northwest winds followed the front's passage. Highs today will around 40° or about 7° below average.



Blustery is a word you will hear to help describe the weather the next couple of days. Winds today will gust to near 30 mph and combined with today's colder temperatures means we will have wind chills in the 30s and 20s most of the day. Winds on Wednesday will gust as high as 35 mph but out of a warmer direction. Southerly winds tomorrow should warm us back above average into the lower 50s.


Six out of the next seven days should be above average. The warmest days will be Thursday and Friday with highs of 60° or above. Today will be the coldest day of this week. We have bookends of 40s for highs over the next seven days. The good news is that the 40s next Monday should be the coldest day of Thanksgiving week.




The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for this Thursday (lower left) suggests highs here about 20° above average. That means we should soar into the middle 60s. The forecast for Thanksgiving isn't quite as warm (lower right) but still well above average. The model has highs here about 10° above average which would mean the lower to middle 50s.




Signals Getting Stronger For Mild End To Month


The longer range temperature probability forecasts still show a relatively mild pattern through Thanksgiving and beyond. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 22nd through the 26th. The signal gets stronger for above average temperatures in the 8-14 day forecast from November 24th through the 30th. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.



I shared the latest experimental North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecasts in yesterday's post. It keeps that relatively mild pattern coming right into December. The forecasts for the weeks ending December 3rd and December 11th have us above average overall. There will probably be shots of colder than average air too but when all is said and done, we should come out above average for the period.




Bad Timing


Partly to mostly sunny skies should prevail today through Friday. The next decent threat of rain doesn't arrive until Friday night with a better chance for light rain on Saturday. Sunday should be wet at times too.



Snow Watch


The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast continues to keep us snow free right through the weekend after Thanksgiving. Some significant snow could fall from northern Iowa, southern Minnesota through central and norther Wisconsin Saturday into Sunday. We will be seeing plain old rain here.


The longer range precipitation probabilities forecasts start off relatively wet then shift towards a more dry pattern. The 6-10 day forecast from November 22nd through November 26th has us outlooked for above average precipitation overall . The even longer range 8-14 day forecast from November 24th through the 30th drops us back to below average precipitation (either rain or snow but mostly rain based on the temperature forecast) overall.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Sunny, colder & blustery High: 41


Wednesday: Mostly sunny, milder but blustery Low: 27 High: 50


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy Low: 42 High: 65

Friday: Partly/mostly cloudy. light rain possible late Low: 47 High: 61


Saturday: Cloudy, on & off light rain Low: 43 High: 57


Sunday: Cloudy, on & off rain Low: 43 High: 52


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 37 High: 47


#ilwx

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