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  • Tim McGill

Chilly Today But 60s In Sight

Updated: Nov 4, 2021

A Review Of A Warm & Wet October

Last month's average temperature of nearly 60° at O'Hare was closer to what we see for an average temperature in September than October. It tied for the 9th warmest October on record. 24 of 31 days (77%) were above average.

It was not only a warm October but a wet one as well. The 5.77" of rain that fell made it the 12th wettest October on record at O'Hare. 1-5" of rain fell on October 24-25 to help put a significant dent in our drought. 20 out of 31 days had rainfall.

Chill Still Here But 60s Coming Soon

November has started off nice in terms of sunshine but chilly in terms of temperatures. Tuesday was the coldest day we have seen since late April. We had a high yesterday of just 43 (12° below average) and a low of 34 (6° below average). It was the third straight day below average.

Today will be a few degrees colder overall. It should be the coldest day in nearly 7 months. Our lows dipped into the lower 20s in some outlying areas this morning and our highs will be similar to yesterday's.

Average highs for today's date are around 54°. The GFS Model has our highs today failing to get out of the 40s for the third straight day. Highs this afternoon should top out in the lower to middle 40s.

Thursday should be the last day of the week with highs only in the 40s. The GFS Model has our highs tomorrow topping out in the upper 40s.

50s are expect for highs both Friday and Saturday with the warmest day of the next several on Sunday. The GFS Model has our highs Sunday reaching into the lower 60s. It should be the warmest day we have seen in nearly three weeks.

We won't be the only ones basking in unseasonably warm November weather this weekend. The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for Sunday afternoon has nearly everyone from the Rockies to the east coast enjoying above average temperatures. We are forecast to be between 14° to 18°above average. That would mean temperatures well into the 60s.

So two more days in a row with highs failing to get above the 40s even with plenty of sunshine. Wind chills today through Thursday morning will be in the 30s.

The wind shifts late tonight from the northwest to a more southwesterly direction to signal the beginning of a warm up that should continue through the weekend.

Virtually no chance of rain or snow today or tomorrow.

Relatively Mild Pattern To Keep On Coming

The National Blend Of Models has our highs warming through early next week with highs well into the 60s on Monday. We cool several degrees by Tuesday, bounce back for the middle of the week with highs of 60° or more and then highs fall back into the 50s for Friday.

Our milder pattern that kicks in this weekend could continue through next week and on into the middle of the month. The 6-10 day outlook has us favored for above average temperatures overall from November 8th through November 12th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also favors us for above average temperatures from November 10th through November 16th. Average highs for this period are in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The even longer term 35 day temperature anomaly forecast once again has northern Illinois near normal. Downstate Illinois is outlooked to be between 1° to 4° below average. This forecast covers the period from November 1st through December 6th. The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members The model tries to give an idea of the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by running an ensemble of multiple forecasts which are each tweaked a bit with their initial conditions.

Still A Good Time For A Car Wash

The chill the past few days means the growing season is officially over but our drought drags on. October may have been wet but it didn't wipe out our drought. Today will be the fourth dry day in a row and that streak could stretch to eleven straight days without any precipitation here.

The most recent US Drought Monitor analysis was released last Thursday. It was the third report in a row to bring good news for Illinois. It did not include our rainfall this past Thursday and Friday. Here is a recap from that report:

The area considered in either a moderate or severe drought diminished at least slightly. Unlike the previous analysis, this most recent one shows even the area considered "abnormally dry" dropped in coverage.

The news for the Midwest region was good almost across the board. The area in either a moderate or severe drought decreased slightly. The 1.20% of the area in an extreme drought did not change from the last report.

October certainly helped put a dent in our drought. The 30-day precipitation departure from average map shows just how much rain we've seen since early October. Most of the Chicago area has received between 150% to 300% of average rainfall since early last month.

The GFS model's total precipitation forecast through next Tuesday is bone dry here. The next decent chance for rain doesn't come until a week from today.

The GFS model's meteogram for O'Hare keeps us dry through next Wednesday and then brings in some moderate rainfall for that following Thursday.

The precipitation outlook favors us for a more active pattern from the start of next week into the middle of the month. The latest 6-10 day forecast has the Chicago area favored for above average precipitation (which can take the form of rain or snow now) from November 8th through November 12th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has us outlooked for above normal precipitation for the period from November 10th through November 16th.

Here is my 7 day forecast:

Today: Sunny start then partly cloudy High: 46

Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 49

Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 34 High: 52

Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 39 High: 58

Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 44 High: 63

Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 48 High: 62

Tuesday: Mostly sunny Low: 43 High: 57


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