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  • Tim McGill

Brrrr For Baseball But What A Weekend!

Feeling More Like Football Weather


This is no April Fools' joke. A brisk breeze will make it feel more like February than April today. There has even been some lake effect flurries near the lakeshore in Illinois and on into northern Indiana early today. I mentioned in yesterday's post that today's Cubs opener could rank among the top five coldest since the early 80s.

Highs today will only be in the upper 30s to near 40°.

The wind will be blowing in at Wrigley Field. A northerly wind between 10 and 20 miles per hour will occasionally gust to near 30. This wind off the lake will hold temperatures in the middle 30s for the Cubs game but the brisk breeze will make it feel like the middle 20s.





More Like May By Sunday


The hourly temperature meteogram compares many different forecast models. We will start April off with highs nearly 15° below average. After a frigid start to Friday with lows in the lower to middle 20s we will rebound this weekend. Sunday should be the warmest day in nearly five months.

The GFS model's forecast for Sunday afternoon looks like a typical forecast for the middle of May. The last time we reached 70° or more was way back on November 10th last year. Sunday's highs should hit 70° for most of us except right along the lakefront.


The GFS model's temperature anomaly forecast for Sunday afternoon shows temperatures are expected to be around 15° to 25° above average here. Anomalous warmth will spread from the Midwest to Montana and southward to the desert southwest.



Active Pattern Next Week


The GFS model precipitation meteogram keeps things quiet here through Tuesday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms could fire up beginning Wednesday and continue through the end of next week.







Falling From Above Average To About Average


The first four days of next week may be the warmest stretch of weather we have seen in about five months. By the end of the weekend temperatures could fall back to around or even below average. Still a very strong signal in the first of two long range temperature probability forecasts. The latest 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from April 6th through April 10th. The longer range 8-14 day has us favored to drop back to about average overall from April 8th through April 14th.



The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) forecast is signaling a mild middle to April and then a flip to a cooler than average pattern towards the end of the month. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending April 16th has us outlooked to be above average for the period. The forecast for the following week ending on April 23rd has us outlooked to dip back below average overall. It's a fairly dramatic forecast flip.







Less Rain By Middle Of Next Month?

The longer range precipitation probability forecasts have us moving from a more active pattern to a more possibly quiet pattern by the middle of April. The latest 6-10 day forecast has Chicago favored for above average precipitation from April 6th through April 10th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall from April 8th through April 14th too. The risk for spring flooding is above average for many area rivers. More on that below.







Spring Flood Risk Forecast


The National Weather Service considers many risk factors for spring flooding. They include snow cover, soil moisture, and current river conditions.


"A significant snow cover with high water content can increase the chances of flooding once warmer weather melts the snow. Elevated soil moisture conditions reduce the amount of rainfall that is soaked up by the ground and increase the amount of water that then runs off into area streams. Above average river levels reduce the river rise required to reach flood stage, while below average river levels would require an increased amount of river rise to reach flood stage."


The map shows the locations where there is a greater than 50% chance of moderate or minor flooding during March through May 2021.


Their latest forecast suggests the flood risk is above average for many of our area rivers. The Des Plaines and Fox rivers in particular need to be watched closely.





Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly sunny, breezy & cold High: 40


Friday: Sunny skies Low: 25 High: 52


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 37 High: 65


Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 47 High: 72 (cooler lakeside)


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 50 High: 73


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 73


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 54 High: 72


#ilwx


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