Beautiful Weather But Rainfall Deficit Grows
The good news is that you will need sunglasses and a lot of sunscreen this week. The bad news is that we could use some rain and the chances look low all week long. More on that in a minute.
August is running 2° above average but for now we will be getting a break from the high heat and humidity we have seen so often this summer. Today's highs should be right around average with lower 80s for most of us but upper 70s along the lakefront.
At or above average temperatures are expected through the end of August. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for normal temperatures while the 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the end of the month.
This summer to date has been among the top 5 warmest in the past 150 years. The entire earth has seen a warm 2020 overall. NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies says there is a 70% chance this could be the hottest year on record globally.
We've only picked up .77 inches of rain so far this month. That means we are down 1.87" below average. Since the start of July we've seen 3.32" of rain which is 3.02" below average.
There is very little chance of rain this week. The next decent chance is late Saturday into Sunday.
The GFS model is not offering much hope for any substantial rain until then. The total precipitation accumulation forecast through Friday calls for only a few hundredths of an inch of rain.
The long range forecast isn't all that hopeful for rain either. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day precipitation probability forecast has us outlooked for below average rainfall overall from August 22nd through August 30th.
We aren't the only ones looking for some rain. A little over a third of the country is in at least a moderate drought. No official drought yet in Illinois but there is a growing area of "abnormally dry" conditions in the northern half of the state. The portion of Illinois that falls in that category has tripled in the last week and now stands at a bit over 6%. It won't take much for portions of northern Illinois to fall into the moderate drought category.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: AM spotty shower, partly to mostly sunny High: 83 (78 Lakefront) Tuesday: Mostly sunny Low: 64 High: 79 (75 Lakefront) Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 59 High: 83 (77 Lakefront) Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 65 High: 82 (78 Lakefront) Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 63 High: 85
Saturday: Sun & cloud mix, sct. t-storms possible Low: 69 High: 85
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 66 High: 81 (77 Lakefront)