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  • Tim McGill

Back To Reality But Maybe Not For Long

Back Below Average


Wednesday's high of 45° was the first below average day after eight straight days above average. Even with plenty of sunshine yesterday we saw the coldest day in just under two weeks.



The strong cold front that came through Tuesday night brought an end to our incredible record streak of November warmth. The NWS did a recap of that event which saw winds with thunderstorms gust to nearly 80 mph.



Another dose of "reality" today with highs close to average but milder than Wednesday. Southerly breezes and sunshine should push our highs into the lower 50s.



Feel The Chill


Another cold front will come through tonight but not packing the same punch as Tuesday's front. The winds will get gusty by early Friday morning. The combination of colder temperatures as winds gusting to near 30 mph will make it feel like the teens and 20s early Friday.




Not As Many November Records


It was another day of record highs along the east coast. Near or record breaking November highs stretched from Texas to Maine. The number of record highs has dwindled as the cold front we experienced with severe weather late Tuesday makes its way to the east coast.



Up & Down Temperatures


We said so long to the 70s on Tuesday and we can say so long to the 60s too at least through next Wednesday. The good news though is that there is no bitterly cold air in our near November future. Highs oscillate between a bit below average to a bit above average for the next several days.



Signals Still Strong For Rebound


The long range signals remain fairly strong that we will see temperatures bounce back (overall) starting towards the middle of next week and continuing almost up to Thanksgiving. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 17th through the November 21st. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has an even bigger part of the country outlooked for above average from November 19th through the 25th including the Midwest. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.



I shared the Multi Model Ensemble forecast in Monday's post. Just a reminder that it has signaled a relatively mild pattern too for the end of this month and the start of December..



Few Chances For Rain


We have only seen one day in the last 19 days with more than a trace of rain. A few showers are possible this evening with the arrival of a cold front then the next good (and only decent) chance for rain is late Saturday into early Sunday.




Dreaming Of A White Thanksgiving?


I'll keep an eye out for any possible snow between now and Thanksgiving. The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast run out through Thanksgiving continues to show a lack of snowfall here between now and then. It has also reduced the amount of snow for areas to our north. Stay tuned though since this is a long range forecast that will probably change.



The mainly dry pattern we have been seeing the past few weeks could continue through all of next week. Beyond that, the longer range forecast suggests we could flip to a pattern favoring above average precipitation but the signal isn't very strong. The 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation from November 17th through the November 21st. The longer range 8-14 day has us favored for above average precipitation overall from November 19th through the 25th.





Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly sunny, not as cold High: 53


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 32 High: 43

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers mainly late Low: 29 High: 48


Sunday: AM shower possible then partly to mostly sunny Low: 43 High: 49 (falling pm)


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 33 High: 44


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 42


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 28 High: 48


#ilwx

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