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  • Tim McGill

All Still Quiet On The Winter Front

Colder Couple Of Days


Any day in December with temperatures at least around average and no snowfall is a good day (at least in my mind). Our quiet start to December continues although it will be a bit colder today and tomorrow and even a few flurries are possible. Still there is nothing too terribly cold and no significant snow for at least the next seven days in the forecast.

So far December is running 3.4° above average. This weekend our highs will be right around average before a big warm up next week. Look for today's highs to reach to near 40°.



We will hover right around average through Monday and then warm up through Thursday next week. Keep in mind that average highs this time of the year are around 38°.



The GFS model temperature anomaly forecast for next Thursday looks like it is on fire. It shows the most of the country will enjoy temperatures between 5° to 20° above average. The Chicago area will be around 16° to 18° above average according to this forecast. So highs next Thursday should top out at least in the lower 50s.




Still Searching For Some Snow


We have only seen .7" of snow so far this snowfall season. There could be a few sprinkles or flurries late tonight into tomorrow mainly near the lakefront with another chance for some flurries late Sunday into early Monday. Little or no accumulation expected from either system. Plain old rain returns late next Friday into Saturday. Another system on Sunday could start as rain and then change to snow. From this vantage point though it looks like the accumulating snow would stay mainly north and west of the city according to the the GFS model.


The ten day accumulated snowfall forecasts from both the GFS model and the the European model both show some snowfall but the amounts and locations are very different.


The GFS model shows up to three inches or so possible mainly in far northwestern suburbs. That would be with the system coming a week from this Sunday. Lighter amounts of around a half inch possible in the city. This system moves from the southwest to the northeast late next weekend.

The European model is laying down a swath of snow across northern Illinois with total snowfall accumulation of up to two inches. The system bringing this snow would arrive a week from Monday and move from the northwest to the southeast.




Mild Through Middle Of The Month


Our relatively mild December pattern will probably stick around for several days. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from December 10th through December 14th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast from December 12th through the 18th also has us favored for above average temperatures overall.






Mainly Dry Pattern Continues


We have only seen precipitation on nine of the past thirty-five days. This quiet pattern may continue well into the month. The longer range precipitation probabilities forecast favors us for below normal precipitation overall through the middle of the month. The 6-10 day forecast from December 10th through December 14th has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall. The 8-14 day forecast from December 12th through December 18th has below average overall too.



Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly cloudy High: 40


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, a few flurries/sprinkles possible Low: 30 High: 40

Monday: A.M. flurries?, partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 41


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 28 High: 45

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 33 High: 50


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 36 High: 51


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 37 High: 45


#ilwx

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