About To Flip Switch To Cooler June Pattern?
June has gotten off to a steamy start. So far this month is more than 11° above average. Only one day in the last seventeen has been below average. That warm pattern breaks down this weekend. A cold front crossed through the area late yesterday and winds off the lake will keep us near or just a bit cooler than average today. I am expecting middle to upper 70s for most areas with cooler 60s at the lakefront. An average high for this time of year is 77°.
Most of the next ten days should be dry. The exception is later Tuesday into Wednesday. The potential is there for some heavy rainfall in parts of the midwest.
All eyes will be on the remnants of what is now tropical storm Cristobal. The latest rainfall forecast is keeping the heaviest rainfall just west of here. A slight eastward change in the track of this system though could bring flooding rains here so this will have to be watched closely. It is not unusual for the Chicagoland area to get deluged by the remnants of tropical systems that sweep north from the Gulf of Mexico. The Chicago National Weather Service office has an excellent summary of the climatology of the remnants of tropical systems that have impacted our area.
We will see a few warmer days early next week but then a pattern shift to cooler weather could be coming. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for cooler than average temperatures overall for the middle of the month from June 11th through the 19th.
Despite the potential for some heavy rain during the middle of next week, the long range precipitation forecast keeps us fairly dry through the middle of the month. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation probability has us outlooked for below average precipitation.
The flip to a cooler pattern for the middle of the month could extend all the way through the end of the month. The multi-ensemble air temperature anomaly forecast continues to suggest a cooler than average period for the week ending June 26th. This signal has been fairly consistent over the past few weeks.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Mostly sunny, mild & pleasant High: 78 (68 Lakefront)
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 56 High: 80 (71 Lakefront)
Monday: Mostly sunny Low: 64 High: 91 (84 Lakefront)
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, pm showers & thunderstorms Low: 67 High: 87 (83 Lakefront)
Wednesday: Morning showers then partly to mostly sunny Low: 66 High: 79
Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 59 High: 72
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 50 High: 68