A Taste Of The Tropics Today
Tropical Depression Cristobal will nudge north into the midwest today and maintain a level of strength that is rarely seen this far north for a tropical system. The impacts will be some locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and a possible isolated tornado.
While we may be a couple of degrees cooler the added humidity from this tropical system will make it feel nearly as hot as yesterday when highs hit 90°. Today's highs should be in the upper 80s with lower 80s along the lakefront.
The GFS model continues to keep the heavier rainfall from this system to our west with up to 3 inches or more expected in parts of Iowa and Minnesota. The model is showing about a third to half an inch of rain here but any individual thunderstorm has the potential to produce locally heavy rain with so much moisture around. The best chance of rain is from 2 pm today to 2 am tomorrow.
A wind advisory is in effect from noon today to 10 pm tonight. Look for steady winds to ramp up to 20 to 25 mph later today but gusts could get as high as 45 mph or more this afternoon and tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center has the Chicagoland area in a marginal to slight risk area for severe weather. That is levels one and two out of five possible levels of severe risk. Damaging winds with a few thunderstorms are the biggest threat but high wind shear means an isolated tornado could spin up especially in the slight risk area just south of the city.
Looking longer range, the trend for temperatures is cooler. This weekend should be just a bit below average. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for cooler than average temperatures overall from June 14th through the 19th. Beyond that the forecast is more fuzzy. The 8-14 day temperature probability forecast shows equal chances of above or below temperatures during the period.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Becoming cloudy, windy, warm, pm showers/t-storms High: 87 (83 Lakefront)
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, sct. shower/t-storm possible, breezy Low: 72 High: 80
Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 59 High: 79
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 60 High: 77 (70 Lakefront)
Saturday: Mostly sunny Low: 53 High: 70 (64 Lakefront)
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 58 High: 78 (73 Lakefront)