A Remarkable Recovery Is On The Way
Slow But Steady Warm Up
Friday's 40s for highs almost made the record books. Our high yesterday only made it to 49°. The record cool high for yesterday's date was 47° set way back in 1884. We were 26° below average and it was the coldest day in nearly seven weeks. It was so chilly I used my fireplace on Friday. Four days prior we had a high of 90°.
Our slow but steady warm up starts today. A brisk breeze off the lake will keep us about 15° to 20° below average today but we should be around 10° warmer than yesterday. Highs today will range from the upper 50s along the lakefront to the lower 60s well south and west of the city.
Today won't be as blustery as yesterday but winds will still gust over 20 mph at times. The winds will be a bit stronger right at the lakeshore where waves will build up to nearly 7 feet and also create dangerous rip currents. A beach hazards statement has been issued for the lakeshore through 9 pm tonight. The wind will stay off the lake through Sunday to continue to keep us cooler lakeside.
Notice the high today at O'Hare expected to hit near 60° with plenty of sunshine and then climb to near 70° on Sunday. The probability of rain remains at zero all the way through 10 pm Sunday.
The meteogram below considers several different model forecasts of temperatures. 70s will be back by Memorial Day and 80s should be here by Friday.
This will be an impressive recovery. Lows tonight well northwest of the city will dip into the upper 30s and by Friday most of the area will be back into the 80s.
We will continue to warm up through next weekend. The temperature anomaly forecast has temperatures on Saturday around 10° to 15° above average. That means highs Saturday should be in the upper 80s to near 90°.
We picked up some much needed rain on Friday. About a half inch to an inch of rain fell over most of the area.
Here is a recap of the drought situation that I shared in yesterday's post:
The latest analysis from the U.S. Drought Monitor showed virtually no change from last week. The area of the state in a moderate drought remains at 6.58%. There was also no change in the area in a severe drought. Nearly 3% of northern Illinois is in that category. That includes the north side of the city, northern DuPage & Cook counties, northeastern Kane county, all of Lake county and most of McHenry county. The percentage of the state that is abnormally dry dropped just .01%.
We picked up .50" of rain officially on Friday. O'Hare is now down 2.30" of rain below average for May and 6.54" below average since March 1st.
The GFS model suggests the next decent chance of rain here won't occur until late Wednesday. There is an outside chance for a spotty shower Memorial Day afternoon but the threat is low at this point.
The GFS model total rainfall forecast through Friday afternoon ranges from a quarter of an inch for most of us with nearly a half inch south of Chicago and up to nearly an inch in north central Indiana. This would be helpful but more significant rain is required to of our to make a real impact on the drought.
Stronger Warm Signal
The longer range temperature probability forecasts are now showing a stronger signal for a warmer than average first part of June. The 6-10 day forecast favors us for above average temperatures overall from June 3rd through June 7th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast continues to favor the Chicago area for above average temperatures overall from June 5th through June 11th.
The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecast is favoring the Chicago area for near normal temperatures for the middle of next month. The average highs for this period are in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending June 11th has us outlooked for about average temperatures overall. The forecast for the following week ending on June 18th also has Chicago outlooked for about average temperatures overall.
Near Normal Rainfall For Start Of June
The long range precipitation probability forecasts have us between an area northwest of here favored for below average rainfall and an area south and east of us favored for above average rainfall. We sit in-between with near normal rainfall expected. The latest 6-10 day forecast has Chicago favored for near normal precipitation from June 3rd through June 7th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast also has us favored for about average precipitation overall from June 5th through June 11th.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Sunny skies, breezy, not as cool High: 62 (57 lakeside)
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 44 High: 68 (62 lakeside)
Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 54 High: 74
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 54 High: 75 (cooler lakeside)
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, sct. shower possible late Low: 55 High: 75 (cooler lakeside)
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers/t-storms Low: 58 High: 78 (cooler lakeside)
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 60 High: 83 (cooler lakeside)