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  • Tim McGill

A Mostly Dry But Cooler Week

What A Difference A Week Makes



We started off last week in the 70s before highs warmed into the 80s for the middle of the week. We start this week off in the 60s and then fall to the 50s for highs tomorrow and by Wednesday there may be a few spots that fail to warm above the 40s. The longer range forecasts are suggesting this cooler pattern could hang around. More on that below.


Today will be the warmest day of the week. Look for highs in the lower 60s in most areas but upper 50s well north and west of the city.



We will start the week off windy at times today. Gusts will approach 30 mph this afternoon. Winds diminish slightly for tomorrow but will still gust over 20 mph from midday into the evening.





Not A Big Need For The Umbrella


The GFS model shows a few sprinkles early this morning but most of today and tomorrow should be dry. A spotty sprinkle this afternoon and again late Tuesday can't be ruled out but any rain that falls will be rather light. A better chance of rain could come late Sunday into Monday. So it is safe to put away the umbrella at least through Saturday.






Cool But Not Cold


The hourly temperature meteogram compares many different forecast models. The models all agree that today will be the warmest day of the week. We slide from the lower 60 today to near 50° for a high by Wednesday and then recover a few degrees by the weekend but stay just a bit below average for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Today's average high is 58° and it jumps to 60° by Saturday.



The GFS model's temperature anomaly forecast has northern Illinois dropping to around 7° to 10° below average by Wednesday afternoon. That means highs will be near 50°. Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week.


I

t will be cool here but cold enough for snow just to our north. It's not much but the GFS model is suggesting some snowfall possible Wednesday for the upper Midwest including much of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan.




Cool Pattern Continues After This Week


The longer range temperature probability forecasts hint that the cooler pattern that kicks in this week could linger towards the end of April. The latest 6-10 day forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from April 17th through April 21st. The 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us favored for below average temperatures overall from April 19th through April 25th too. Average highs in Chicago move from the upper 50s to lower 60s during this period.



The even longer range Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) temperature anomaly forecast is signaling a cooler than average end to April and a return to around average for the start of May. The temperature anomaly forecast for the week ending April 30th has us outlooked to be a bit below average overall. The forecast for the following week ending on May 7th has Chicago bouncing back to about average overall. Average highs by the start of May are in the lower 60s.









Drier Long Range Forecast

The longer range precipitation probability forecasts continue to signal a drier than average pattern this weekend and through the following week. The latest 6-10 day forecast has Chicago favored for below average precipitation from April 17th through April 21st. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall from April 19th through April 25th too.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy (gusts to near 30 mph) High: 63


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy Low: 41 High: 56


Wednesday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 37 High: 50


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 38 High: 54 (cooler lakeside)


Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 38 High: 57 (cooler lakeside)


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 39 High: 57 (cooler lakeside)


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, rain possible late Low: 41 High: 58 (cooler lakeside)


#ilwx


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