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  • Tim McGill

A Chilly But Dry First Week Of November

Coldest Days Since The Middle Of March



It has been a relatively mild fall so far. September ended up 4° above average. October tied as the 9th warmest on record ending up nearly 6° above average. 24 of 31 days last month were above average. Fall is about to take a cold turn. The next six straight days could be colder than average. This first week of November will see some of the coldest temperatures in over seven months.


A chill in the air for the start of the new month today despite seeing partly to mostly sunny skies today.


Average highs for today's date are around 55°. The GFS Model has our highs today failing to get out of the 40s. Highs this afternoon should top out in the middle to upper 40s.



Under mainly clear skies tonight our temperatures will really tumble. The GFS Model has our lows dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. This would be the coldest night here since early April.



The cold keeps coming. The GFS Model has our highs on Tuesday only reaching into the lower to middle 40s.



We will warm up by the weekend. The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for Saturday afternoon has northern Illinois running between 6° to 10° above average. That would mean temperatures in the middle to upper 50s.




We have some cold to get through first before that weekend warm up. Highs will only be in the 40s today and tomorrow with wind chills dipping down into the lower to middle 20s by early Tuesday morning.


A bit breezy today and tomorrow to add insult to injury. At least it will be dry all week with virtually no chance of any rain or snow.







Chilly Week But Warmer Weekend


The National Blend Of Models has our highs holding in the 40s through Thursday. We begin to warm up by the end of the week and continue that warming trend through Tuesday.



The longer range temperature outlooks have us near normal at first and then move us into a milder than average pattern. The 6-10 day outlook has us favored for about average temperatures overall from November 6th through November 10th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast favors most of us for above average temperatures from November 8th through November 14th. Average highs for this period are in the upper 40s to lower 50s.




The even longer term 35 day temperature anomaly forecast has most of us just a bit below average for the period from through this November and into to the start of December. The shade of light blue in northern Illinois represents temperatures overall around 1° to 3° below average. There is a small portion of the area south of Chicago that is not shaded in light blue. This area is expected to be near normal. This forecast covers the period from November 1st through December 4th. The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members The model tries to give an idea of the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by running an ensemble of multiple forecasts which are each tweaked a bit with their initial conditions.









Dry Outlook After Soggy October


O'Hare ended up with nearly 6 inches of rain last month making it the 12th wettest October on record. November will start off dry. More on that below.


The most recent US Drought Monitor analysis was released last Thursday. It was the third report in a row to bring good news for Illinois. It did not include our rainfall this past Thursday and Friday. Here is a recap from that report:


The area considered in either a moderate or severe drought diminished at least slightly. Unlike the previous analysis, this most recent one shows even the area considered "abnormally dry" dropped in coverage.



Here is a summary of the impacts the ongoing drought is having on northern Illinois from the National Weather Service:


Volunteer observers across far northern Illinois indicate much lower then typical stream flows on area creeks and rivers, particularly along Beaver Creek and the Kishwaukee River.

Reports also indicate that lawns have gone dormant and there has been some stress to the trees. Few impacts to agriculture have been received recently, though the dry conditions and stressed crops have resulted in an early start to the harvest season across northern Illinois. Data available from the Illinois State Water Survey, USGS, and NCEP indicate that soil moisture, groundwater, and surface water levels remain below normal.


The news for the Midwest region was good almost across the board. The area in either a moderate or severe drought decreased slightly. The 1.20% of the area in an extreme drought did not change from the last report.


We erased quite a bit of our rainfall deficit in October that we saw during the summer months. Most of the Chicago area has received between 150% to 300% of average rainfall for October so far with a few spots even seeing up to 300% to 400% of average.



The GFS model's total precipitation forecast through this upcoming weekend keeps the vast majority of the area dry. It does squeeze out some very light rainfall amounts in our far northern suburbs late Saturday into Sunday with just a few hundredths of an inch expected there.


The GFS model's meteogram for O'Hare shows some sprinkles possible Saturday night into Sunday more but no real significant rain until a week from Wednesday.



The precipitation outlook continues to favor us for a dry pattern overall through the middle of this month. The latest 6-10 day forecast has the Chicago area favored for below average rainfall from November 6th through November 10th. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation too for the period from November 8th through November 14th.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly sunny start then becoming partly sunny, breezy & colder High: 47


Tuesday: Sunny & cold, a bit breezy Low: 30 High: 45


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 28 High: 44


Thursday: Mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 45


Friday: Mostly sunny Low: 32 High: 51


Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 35 High: 53


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 39 High: 56

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