80s Gone For Weekend But Back Soon
After a cool start May now has a surplus on the temperatures side. This month is now .9° warmer than average. It is an impressive turn around after the after ten of the first 13 days were well below average.
Today's highs will fall to just a bit below average. The HRRR model shows lower 70s for most of us but cooler lakeside with upper 60s there. This cooler pattern hangs around for a few days.
We are also at a surplus this month for rainfall. So far this month a record 9.51" of rain has fallen. That demolishes last year's previous record of 8.25" set just last year. The good news is May will end dry and June will start off that way too. The GFS meteogram shows the next chance for rain coming later Tuesday into Wednesday but only light rain expected. Some thunderstorms more likely later Wednesday into Thursday.
It will be back to about average or even below average from Friday through this weekend and into Monday. The GFS temperature anomaly forecast shows by midday Saturday we will be nearly 10° below average. Much of the midwest and plains will be anywhere between 5° to nearly 20° below average to start off the weekend.
That cool air doesn't stick around too long though. By Wednesday morning the GFS temperature anomaly bounces back to 15° to nearly 20° above average here and through most of the midwest. Highs by then will be back well into the 80s.
The longer range forecast has consistently favored us for above average temperatures overall for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods. Most of the country is in one of the tan to red shades indicating we won't be the only place warmer than average.
Looking even longer range...
An ensemble of models shows a return to cooler than average temperatures overall about the middle of next month. The week end on June 19th has the bullseye of coolest temperatures centered just west of here.
Here is my 7 day forecast:
Today: Partly to mostly sunny High: 72 (68 Lakefront)
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 54 High: 68 ( 63 Lakefront)
Sunday: Mostly sunny Low: 50 High: 69 (62 Lakefront)
Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 52 High: 73
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, shower possible late Low: 61 High: 81
Wednesday: Partly cloudy, sct. shower/t-storm possible Low: 66 High: 84
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 63 High: 83