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  • Tim McGill

80s Gone For Good This Year?

First Real Fall Chill This Week


O'Hare has had highs of 80° or warmer eight times in September. Saturday fell just shy with a high of 79°. As a matter of fact four of the last six days fell just shy of 80° with a high of 79°. No sign of anything close to 80° in at least the next ten days. Once we get into the middle of October it is very rare to see a high that warm the rest of the year. It can happen though. Over the past 20 years the average date of the last 80° high or warmer is October 4th. 8 of the last 20 years have seen a high of 80° or more beyond October 7th. I mention the 7th because it looks likely we will be cooler than average through at least that date.


After Sunday's 70s we slide back to near 60° today and fall into the 50s for highs by the start of October on Thursday. Highs might fail to get out of the 50s Thursday through the weekend and on into early next week.



The warmest day of the next seven will be Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s. A definite chill in the air for the start of October on Thursday with highs in the 50s for the first time since the middle of May. We then stay well below average through the weekend. Frost is possible Friday night into Saturday morning away from the city as lows fall into the middle to upper 30s.


Even though it might feel more like early November than early October by the end of the week, there are signs we may warm back up by the middle of the month. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us favored for below average temperatures overall from October 3rd through the 7th. Notice the area in orange, tan and red across the western part of the country and how it expands and shifts eastward towards the midwest in the 8-14 day forecast. We are outlooked for returning to about average temperatures from October 5th through the 11th.



Looking even longer range that blob of warmth blossoms even more by the middle of the month. The multi-ensemble forecast below has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall for the week ending on October 16th. This seems to indicate the relatively warm air building out west is headed our way over the next few weeks. So brace for some chilly fall weather for a few days and then get ready for another warm up. 80s could be gone for good this year but relatively warmer weather is probably not.



Some September Showers


The last time we saw rain before last night was just under two weeks ago. .02" of rain fell on September 13th. At that time we had 2.78" so far for the month which was 1.33" above average. After 13 straight dry days we dropped to -.10" below average for the start of Sunday. We wiped out over an inch surplus of rain for the month during that period. Some peaks of sun possible today but also some scattered showers. Beyond that our next decent chance of rain doesn't come until Sunday.



Last week I blogged about the moderate drought that portions of our area are still in. That eased somewhat over the last several days and this recent rain will help diminish the drought further.


The 6-10 day precipitation probability forecast has us outlooked for below average precipitation overall from October 3rd through the 7th. The 8-14 day keeps us with below average precipitation overall from October 5th through the 11th.



Here is my 7 day forecast: Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, sct. showers (iso. t-storm possible) High: 61 Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 45 High: 62 Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny, spotty pm shower possible Low: 47 High: 68 Thursday: Partly cloudy, pm scattered showers Low: 46 High: 57

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 40 High: 54

Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 39 High: 55 Sunday: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers Low: 47 High: 59

#ilwx

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