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  • Tim McGill

70s Today While Snow Chances Diminish For Next Week

Warm But Windy


It's easy to forget we started off October with five straight days below average. By October 5th the month was nearly 7° below average. That temperature deficit has disappeared. Today will be the 9th straight day with temperatures above average. October is now running 2.3° above average.


Some sunshine and gusty southwest winds will push highs into the middle 70s today. It will seem more like September than the middle of October.


For highs to make it into the middle 70s it takes strong winds this time of year. We will have gusts out of the southwest over 40 mph today. It's possible some gusts could hit 50 mph. A wind advisory is in effect from noon until 7 this evening. The winds will diminish a bit Thursday but still gust to near 30 mph.




Temperatures Tumble Tomorrow


Those winds on Thursday will have shift to the west bringing in much cooler air. Highs fall into the 50s tomorrow and Friday. We will recover to near 60° Saturday but then the bottom drops out. Areas away from the city Friday morning could dip to near freezing or even a bit below. The coldest air in about six months arrives Sunday with highs failing to get out of the 40s.

The cool pattern that kicks in tomorrow and gets colder by the end of the weekend could stick around for a couple of weeks. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for below average temperatures overall from October 18th through the 27th.



The chances for precipitation (of any type) remain very low overall through next Thursday. There is a slight chance for some spotty sprinkles early Thursday south and a few late Friday north but most of us will be dry. The next decent chance of rain isn't until a week from Friday.





The Models Giveth & Taketh Away


The colder pattern starting on Sunday and continuing into Monday could support snow if there was some moisture and a system to squeeze it out. Some of the model runs yesterday suggested the possibility of significant snow here early next week. I cautioned though that it was early and a lot could change. A lot did change and now the models have stripped the snow from our forecast but still keep significant snow to the north of us and a smattering of light snow to the south. Another word of caution because this is still evolving. I would be surprised if at least a few spots didn't get a few flurries at the very least.


This has been a fairly dry month so far. We are now -.87" of rain compared to average.

The longer range precipitation probability forecasts suggest we might make up some of that deficit in the next couple of weeks. Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts have us outlooked for above average precipitation overall from October 19th through the 27th. This time of year that precipitation could be rain or snow.




Here is my 7 day forecast:


Wind Advisory From Noon Until 7 pm

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, windy (gusts to 45 mph) High: 75


Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy (gusts to 30 mph) Low: 47 High: 57


Friday: Sunny skies Low: 35 High: 58


Saturday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 37 High: 60


Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy, spotty shower possible Low: 41 High: 47

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy Low: 34 High: 48


Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 32 High: 52


#ilwx

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