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  • Tim McGill

60s Should Be Back Soon

Thawing By Thanksgiving


We bounced back above average on Thursday with a high of 54° (average high is 50°). The day featured plenty of sunshine. After some morning clouds this Friday will also feature plenty of sunshine. We drop back below average though because a cold front came through last night. After another rollercoaster ride with temperatures into early next week then there is a warm up on the way. No 70s in sight but there could be some 60s by the end of next week.



Even with sunshine this afternoon we will fall to near 40° for the high. It will be a bit breezy with west winds gust to near 30 mph at times early in the day before subsiding. Some spots north an west of the city might night climb out of the 30s.




What A Difference A Year Makes


We can't complain too much about this brief brush with chilly air. At this same time last year we had snow on the ground and we were in the middle of a cold snap. The first 19 days of November a year ago were below average.


Here's a comparison of this November to last November:


2019 2020

# of days reporting at least trace of snow by 11/12 6 2

total snowfall by 11/12 8.1" Trace

Temp first 11 days of November 11.8° below avg. 10.7° above avg.


We had more snow on the ground nationally last year compared to this year too. The image below on the right shows November, 2019's snow cover as of the 12th. The image on the left shows this year's snow cover as of yesterday. Last year 30.6% of the country had snow on the ground. This year 23.3% of the country has snow cover.




Gusty Weekend Winds


After a breezy start today the winds will diminish but watch for winds to pick back up this weekend. Gusts on Saturday will be near 30 mph and possibly higher in some thunderstorms that may develop. Gusts Saturday night will climb to around 35 mph and by Sunday afternoon they could reach 40 mph or greater.




Records More Even


Up until the past few days the number of record highs across the country was well outpacing the number of record low. Colder air has now made its way to the east coast and while there were some record or near record highs in the Gulf and deep south yesterday, there was almost an equal balance of record or near record lows out west.




Another Rollercoaster Ride


Strap in for a bumpy temperature ride through early next week. Down today, back up above average tomorrow, down Sunday, back up to near average Monday, falling back into the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday then a warm up for the end of next week. That milder air that arrives next Thursday could stick around through next Saturday.


The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for next Thursday has a lot of brown on the map. Most of the country will be relatively mild for the middle of November. We could be between 10° to nearly 20° above average. Average highs by then fall to 46° so that would mean highs near or even above 60°.



Possibly Milder Through Thanksgiving


The long range forecasts have been consistent in suggesting a relatively mild end to the month, at least right up to through Thanksgiving. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 18th through the November 22nd. The longer range 8-14 day forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures too from November 20th through the 26th. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.




Rumbles Of Thunder?


Our next chance of rain arrives by Saturday afternoon. There could be a few thunderstorms late tomorrow into tomorrow night. After that, a dry week is ahead for next week with the next chance of rain the following weekend.




No Need For Shovels Yet


The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast run out through Thanksgiving does not show any accumulation here. It continues to suggest some now well to our north. So as of today the chances for snow to stick here are slim for the next nearly two weeks. I'll continue to update this as needed since there certainly could be changes between now and then.


GFS Snowfall Accumulation Through Friday, November 27th

The longer range forecast suggests we stay relatively dry in the 6-10 day forecast from November 18th through the November 22nd. The longer range 8-14 day has us favored for above average precipitation overall from November 20th through the 26th.






Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Becoming sunny, breezy & colder High: 40

Saturday: Partly/mostly cloudy, breezy, scattered showers mainly late Low: 29 High: 51


Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy (gusts to 40 mph) Low: 40 High: 47


Monday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 30 High: 52


Tuesday: Mostly sunny Low: 32 High: 43


Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 29 High: 48


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 40 High: 60


#ilwx

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