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  • Tim McGill

60s In Sight With Milder Pattern Coming

Windy End To The Weekend


Winds gusted to near 70 mph on Sunday bringing trees down and overturning a semi on I-57. I blogged about the upcoming weekend winds on Friday but they were even stronger than expected at that time. The winds were out of the west bringing in colder air as temperatures fell from the 50s just after midnight Saturday into the lower 40s Sunday morning where they remained most of the day. At one point this past weekend nearly two dozen states had some type of wind advisory or warning in place. To add insult to injury there were some light snow showers at times during the afternoon and evening.



The National Weather Service has pointed out that although falls are typically blustery here in Chicago, this autumn in particular has seen its share of gusty days. Compared to average we have seen nearly double the amount of days with gusts of 30 mph or stronger, more than four times the number of days with gusts of 40 mph or stronger and three times the number of days with gusts of 50 mph or stronger.




Bouncing Back To Near Normal For November


Some sunshine at least early today and a lighter west wind will combine to push our highs back to about average today. Average highs this time of the year have fallen back below 50°. The average high for today's date is 48°.



Uphill Climb


Highs today will be about average 50° but we fall into the lower 40s Tuesday. Then it is mostly uphill. 60s are possible Thursday and Friday.



The GFS temperature anomaly forecast for Thursday is red hot. The Midwest along with most of the country will be well above average for the middle of November. We could be between 10° to nearly 20° above average. That means highs into the 60s.




Persistent "Mild" Pattern Coming?


The long range forecasts have consistently signaled a relatively mild end to the month could be coming. The 6-10 day temperature probability forecast has us outlooked for above average temperatures overall from November 21s through the 25th. There is an even stronger signal for above average temperatures in the 8-14 day forecast for the week of Thanksgiving. For an even longer range temperature forecast for this upcoming winter, you can check out my winter forecast post.



The latest experimental North American Multi-Model Ensemble forecasts keep that relatively mild pattern coming right into December. The forecasts for the weeks ending December 3rd and December 11th have us above average overall. I can't stress enough though that there will probably be shots of colder than average air too but when all is said and done, we would come out above average for the period.




Wet Weekend


A few sprinkles are possible late today into this evening but it looks mainly dry most of this week. Poor timing on our next chance of rain. Light rain looks likely Saturday with more rain on Sunday.




Speaking Of Snow


The GFS model snowfall accumulation forecast run out through the weekend after Thanksgiving is bad news for snow lovers. No surprise here since the models keep us relatively mild. The accumulating snow stays well north of us. I'll keep tracking the chances of snow for next week to see if anything changes.



The longer range precipitation probabilities forecasts start off relatively wet then shift towards a more dry pattern. The 6-10 day forecast from November 21st through November 25th has us outlooked for above average precipitation overall . The even longer range 8-14 day forecast from November 23rd through the 29th drops us back to about average precipitation (either rain or snow but mostly rain based on the temperature forecast) overall.



Here is my 7 day forecast:


Today: Mostly cloudy, sprinkles late, a bit breezy High: 50


Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy & colder Low: 28 High: 42


Wednesday: Mostly sunny, blustery Low: 27 High: 49


Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny Low: 40 High: 64

Friday: Mostly cloudy Low: 42 High: 60


Saturday: Mostly cloudy, light rain Low: 43 High: 55


Sunday: Cloudy, on & off rain Low: 43 High: 52


#ilwx

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